Tuesday | 26th August 2025
Hong Kong — Chinese refineries have begun placing significant new orders for Russian crude oil, diverting supplies that would typically flow to India, as demand from the South Asian giant slips in the wake of fresh U.S. trade penalties. Analysts say at least 15 cargoes of Russian oil have already been secured by Chinese refiners for delivery in October and November, underscoring a shifting dynamic in Asia’s energy trade.
Both China and India became the two largest buyers of Russian oil after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western nations, led by the United States and Europe, largely banned or phased out Russian energy imports to choke off funding for the Kremlin’s war effort. This forced Russia to reroute millions of barrels of crude toward Asian buyers, who took advantage of steep discounts.
But the balance has begun to tilt. In July, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated pressure on Russia’s trading partners by threatening secondary tariffs on countries that continued to purchase Russian energy. Earlier this month, his administration went further, announcing an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the United States—on top of an existing 25% levy—explicitly tied to New Delhi’s ongoing imports of Russian oil and gas. The punitive measures have already pushed India to slash its purchases, creating a gap in demand.
Chinese refiners have been quick to exploit the opening. According to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China’s state-owned majors and large private refiners had bought about 13 cargoes of western Russian crude for October delivery and at least two more for November as of last week. Each cargo typically ranges between 700,000 and 1 million barrels, and the shipments will be loaded from Russia’s Arctic and Black Sea ports. These routes normally cater to India rather than China, given their distance and cost, highlighting how the shift is being driven by changing geopolitical and economic conditions.
Reuters earlier confirmed similar figures, reporting that 15 cargoes had been secured by Chinese buyers over the two-month period. Xu described the surge as “opportunistic,” noting that Russian oil is still at least $3 per barrel cheaper than comparable Middle Eastern grades. “As for whether China will continue buying, I personally believe that right now is still a very good opportunity, because over in India, Trump is still pressing hard on them,” she added.
The White House response remains uncertain. Following his landmark meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, Trump told Fox News that he was not yet considering retaliatory tariffs on China for its Russian oil purchases. However, he hinted that such measures could be introduced “in two weeks or three weeks,” leaving Beijing in a window of relative freedom to snap up discounted supplies. “Taking advantage of this opportunity while prices are low, I think more refineries will probably consider buying more, within a week or two,” Xu predicted.
The stakes are significant for both Moscow and its Asian buyers. Last year, India imported $53 billion worth of petroleum and crude oils from Russia, United Nations trade data shows. Russian supplies accounted for roughly 36% of India’s crude imports—making Moscow its single largest supplier—according to energy data provider Vortexa. By contrast, China imported $62.6 billion worth of Russian petroleum and crude in 2023, with Russian oil making up 13.5% of its total crude imports.
Yet even with the recent buying spree, analysts caution that China cannot fully offset India’s retreat. India has been purchasing about 1.7 million barrels of Russian crude per day, while China typically takes in closer to 1.2 million barrels per day by sea. “If India keeps holding off on buying, that’s going to be a real problem for Russia—China just can’t take on all of India’s volume by itself,” Xu explained.
For Russia, the developments highlight the vulnerability of relying too heavily on just two big customers. For China, the near-term advantage is clear: access to cheap crude at a time of slowing domestic growth and tightening global supplies. But the longer-term picture remains clouded by the threat of U.S. sanctions and Trump’s unpredictable trade policy—factors that could soon test Beijing’s willingness to keep serving as Moscow’s economic lifeline.